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Some thoughts on Big Picture for 2020-21

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  • Some thoughts on Big Picture for 2020-21

    I'm as big of a homer/sunshine pumper as you're going to get when it comes to the Trojans - especially when we're talking men's basketball under Enfield.

    However, with all the super-zealous "I told you so" stuff going out, I'm going to keep my mouth zipped until we are playing in the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. The absolute worst thing to happen would be to win the PAC12 and exit the tourney in the first or second round. I put our range of expectations today at Sweet 16, with Elite 8 being a major step above anything I could have imagined for this team (I was one who thought we should be a top 3 conference team before the season started).

    I fear all this schadenfreude going on over Enfield's success vis a vis those who feel he's below our ceiling in coaches (ridiculous concept) is going to bite us in the ass with a not-unlikely possibility of an early exit in the tourney. Let's keep cheering the success and supporting this team no matter what, and remember that basketball is a season where bad games happen, upsets are common, and most players have an off night or two (anyone watching the Lakers as of late?). A sweep this week will really cement this team's consistent rise and hopefully carry us to more wins than losses against the better half of the conference in the next few weeks.

  • #2
    Agree on your points. But I still want to win the PAC12 regular season title for a couple of reasons

    1.) it would drive UCLA fans nuts
    2.) it would be the first since 1985
    3.) if they god forbid lose like they did in 1992 to GA Tech, at least I can still look at the PAC12 regular season title
    4.) did I mention it would drive UCLA fans nuts
    Last edited by TroyWonder; 02-08-2021, 12:00 PM.

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    • #3
      Personally, I don't think it's a given that USC wins the Pac-12. The rest of the schedule will not be easy, even excluding the postponed Oregon game which hasn't been officially canceled. Like you, I would also be disappointed if the team didn't make it to the sweet 16 just like I was disappointed in 2017, but that team played inspired and well enough to win which is all I expect. Sometimes, luck isn't on your side.

      Fight On!

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Eeks2284 View Post
        Personally, I don't think it's a given that USC wins the Pac-12. The rest of the schedule will not be easy, even excluding the postponed Oregon game which hasn't been officially canceled. Like you, I would also be disappointed if the team didn't make it to the sweet 16 just like I was disappointed in 2017, but that team played inspired and well enough to win which is all I expect. Sometimes, luck isn't on your side.

        Fight On!
        Yeah, we played a solid game last night but it was only a few weeks ago when we were down in the dumps after losing to OSU. Basketball isn't a predictable sport... And winning on the road is tough.

        Gotta stay mentally tough, no matter what, take it one week at a time, and just outpace the rest of the conference little by little.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by ob4sc View Post
          I'm as big of a homer/sunshine pumper as you're going to get when it comes to the Trojans - especially when we're talking men's basketball under Enfield.

          However, with all the super-zealous "I told you so" stuff going out, I'm going to keep my mouth zipped until we are playing in the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. The absolute worst thing to happen would be to win the PAC12 and exit the tourney in the first or second round. I put our range of expectations today at Sweet 16, with Elite 8 being a major step above anything I could have imagined for this team (I was one who thought we should be a top 3 conference team before the season started).

          I fear all this schadenfreude going on over Enfield's success vis a vis those who feel he's below our ceiling in coaches (ridiculous concept) is going to bite us in the ass with a not-unlikely possibility of an early exit in the tourney. Let's keep cheering the success and supporting this team no matter what, and remember that basketball is a season where bad games happen, upsets are common, and most players have an off night or two (anyone watching the Lakers as of late?). A sweep this week will really cement this team's consistent rise and hopefully carry us to more wins than losses against the better half of the conference in the next few weeks.
          I've long ago learned my lesson about having concrete expectations with USC's program and lately I've tried to refrain from making too many big-picture predictions about what is going to happen. What I do have is cautious optimism about the general direction of the program. I think the returns are in and I think it's now crystal clear that USC's program has entered a permanently healthy phase under Enfield which, to me, has been the NUMBER ONE prerequisite to establish before this program can take the next jump. The foundation is there now. I'm not ready to heap great expectations on the program just yet, however. Remember the 2017-18 illusion? We had all the parts in place, or so we thought, but there's more to a program than just having some good players in a starting five. It's about continuity and attitudes and, to some extent, a bit of timing and luck.

          What I've tried to do with recent calling out of bad and negative predictors is to try to sort of put an end to this manic-depressive cycle that had taken hold on the boards -- after a win, euphoria, and after a loss, major despondency. The fan base needs to save the euphoria for meaningful games and save the despondency for meaningful disasters. LOSING TO OREGON STATE BY 2 ON THE ROAD does not make this team a disaster, nor does winning by 27 over UW at home make this team great. The signs that this team is special are contained in the things like a road sweep of Arizona and the Bay, something which HAS NEVER HAPPENED in our program's history, or our 12 point per game margin of victory, which is our best in 50 years, or our general position atop or near the top of many major Pac-12 categories. These are important data points that are hard to ignore as they are not things that USC has typically experienced.

          So, let's be sober in assessing things. Objectively, this is a good team, most likely Enfield's best. It doesn't mean we are going to win the conference, but it means we have a good shot. It doesn't mean we are a lock for the Sweet 16, but it means we have a good shot. In an unpredictable sport like college basketball, where a hot shooting underdog can spoil your night, or where the whims of a referee can change the complexion of a game, that's probably the best we can do. It's a better position than having no shot to do those things. If USC loses in the first round of the tourney, I'll be bummed. But the sky won't fall. And if we get to the Sweet 16, I'll be elated. But that won't make me expect improvement the following year. What I DO know is that if we keep going to the tournament, we will eventually break through and get hot and win some games, just like 2001, when we finished a disappointing 4th in the league at 11-7 but had the pieces in place to make a run.

          Keep the faith. We are on the right track. But progress won't be linear. It rarely is.

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          • #6
            great write up melton. the foundation is very solid. i absolutely love the new recruits for next season. what is going to be very interesting is the possible return of everyone (obviously not Evan) for next season. this is a free year for everyone including grad transfers

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            • #7
              Interesting final games:

              Ucla and USC have basically the same remaining schedule as they are, as always, travel partners. Both are 9-2 at present

              Looks like a winner take all or actually the team that wins the most of the remaining games against common opponents may win the Pac 12. (The UCLA game remains huge) ( The Pac 12 )

              If both lose a lot of the remaining games, a third team could win the Pac 12.

              Washingtons on the road
              Arizonas at home
              Utah/ Colorado on the road

              USC has a Stanford home Game

              USC vs UCLA at UCLA

              At Present UCLA had 2 games against Oregon Postponed. a Break. Make up, I don't know 7 games left
              USC has a postponed Oregon Game Make up? 8 games left

              Everybody already knows this but it makes it interesting when USC has control of their future and is not trying to win The Conference from 2-4 games behind the leader.

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              • #8
                I'm one of those who get over optimistic when we win and too upset when we lose so these are good reminders. We are probably going to lose a game that we should have won and maybe win a game that we should have lost but the overall trend is definitely upward. That is something many of us have been waiting for for a long time.

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                • #9
                  The discussion of seeding and tournament performance is fun. But program wise, it's a significant step that we find ourselves being in the tournament most years. To me it would be a huge next step to win the conference. In the last 60 years USC has only done that twice in 1961 and 1985.

                  It's more difficult than usual to put this team's performance in perspective. Neither we nor the other PAC 12 teams have played the normal number of non conference games. Also, although I love the road sweeps, the lack of fans in attendance has to be considered.

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                  • #10
                    We are certainly trending up. To win PAC 12, we need more consistent good play from every player, particularly Peterson, EA, Noah, both Isaiah, Goodwin. Eaddy and Evan are consistently good.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by sketch76 View Post

                      At Present UCLA had 2 games against Oregon Postponed. a Break. Make up, I don't know 7 games left
                      USC has a postponed Oregon Game Make up? 8 games left
                      I'm not sure Oregon is going to make up all 5 games they've had postponed. Oregon is playing OSU on the same Saturday we are playing UCLA. So it's conceivable they could play USC on Tuesday and UCLA on Thursday. But they also have 3 other games to make up. Just don't see it happening.

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                      • #12
                        Worth noting that we got screwed out of the tournament at least twice:

                        When we had the highest RPI to ever be left our of the tournament and last year when the tournament was cancelled. I think people would feel a lot differently about the team if we had two more tourny appearances and a couple tournament wins under our belt.

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                        • TroyWonder
                          TroyWonder commented
                          Editing a comment
                          last year's team definitely would have been in the tournament, especially after that epic game winner against fucla. USC basketball can be frustrating even when off the court.

                      • #13
                        Originally posted by phearSC View Post
                        Worth noting that we got screwed out of the tournament at least twice:

                        When we had the highest RPI to ever be left our of the tournament and last year when the tournament was cancelled. I think people would feel a lot differently about the team if we had two more tourny appearances and a couple tournament wins under our belt.
                        This is a great point. The perception of the program has been hit by this, especially among the fans.

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                        • #14
                          If there's one incentive to keep on winning, it's that USC is tied with ucla in terms of losses on the conference standings (yes I know USC has the tiebreaker). They'll need to keep on winning in order to lock up the regular season. That serves as a dual purpose of getting a higher seed and a higher ranking.
                          Last edited by TroyWonder; 02-09-2021, 09:14 AM.

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                          • #15
                            Watch out for Colorado............Must win on the road for USC ... tough order Colorado has McKinley Wright and some beef in the middle to slow down Mobley

                            Colorado looked pretty good against OSU. Big win I think it was on the road

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