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The door is slightly ajar for a 3 seed

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  • The door is slightly ajar for a 3 seed

    While I think the best seed we can get is probably a 4 seed there might be a path to a 3 seed. If we go back to the bracket reveal on Feb 13th this is how it the committee had the top 16 teams. USC & Fla St were the only teams mentioned as possible 4 seeds. In order:
    (1) Gonzaga Baylor Michigan Ohio St.
    (2) Illinois Villanova Alabama Houston
    (3) Virginia West Virginia Tennessee Oklahoma
    (4) Iowa Texas Tech Texas Missouri...............then USC.....Fla St

    So after the bracket reveal we were basically the first 5 seed. Since Feb 13th Oklahoma, Missouri have piled up loses and we are definitely ahead of them on the seed line. Virginia, Villanova(now without Gillepsie), & Texas Tech have probably hurt their resume more than we have. I would say we are right with those teams close to the same seed line. With Villanova losing today that is definitely one team we should pass if we win the Pac-12 tournament. Virginia won a last second shot today so that could have helped our cause if they had lost(but can't stand Syracuse and love seeing Boeheim sweat selection Sunday).

    So using Bracket Matrix as a reference point I'll go over where we should stand going into today. The 1,s & 2's are pretty much set so we can't pass any of them. I believe a couple 3's won't move either. Of the 2's Houston could move down if they don't win the American Athletic but they won't fall below a 3 seed.

    (1) Gonzaga Baylor Michigan Illinois
    (2) Alabama Iowa Ohio St Houston
    (3) Arkansas West Virginia Kansas Villanova
    (4) Oklahoma St. Texas Purdue Virginia
    (5) Florida St. USC Creighton Tennessee
    (6) Texas Tech Colorado BYU Missouri
    (7) Oklahoma Oregon Clemson Wisconsin
    (8) San Diego St Florida Loyola(Chi) LSU
    (9) UCONN Virginia Tech North Carolina St Bonaventure
    )10) Rutgers UCLA VCU Georgia Tech

    So based on Bracket Matrix what is our path to a 3-seed. Obviously win the Pac-12 tournament. Arkansas is not moving below the 3 line(Should be a 2). The combination of Kansas/ Oklahoma St/ Texas/Purdue. Two of those teams will be on the 3 line almost for sure. And after this mornings results the 3 line should look like this: Arkansas-Kansas-Oklahoma St.-Texas.

    (1) First we probably need Texas or Kansas to lose today. If not today for sure tomorrow. Still might be enough to pass either.
    (2) Purdue losing to Ohio St tomorrow.
    (3) Neither Florida St or Virginia winning the ACC. This is real close if one did win the ACC and USC won the Pac-12. They would probably favor the ACC because of west coast bias.
    (4) And maybe Creighton not winning the Big East. Still think we would be in better position for higher seed.

    So if you're watching games the next couple of days root against: Kansas, Oklahoma St, Texas, Purdue, Virginia, Florida St.

    And if we happen to lose today for example I can't see no way we fall below a 6 seed. Colorado would probably pass us if they got to the Pac-12 final. Oregon might if they won the Pac-12. There is no way we go below BYU who is done playing and having beat them by 20+. Nor Clemson who lost to Miami yesterday. The only teams that could pass us as bracket matrix stands right now: Creighton, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Missouri, Oklahoma, Wisconsin. Probably root against those teams if we happen to lose today.






  • #2
    Originally posted by swamdog View Post
    While I think the best seed we can get is probably a 4 seed there might be a path to a 3 seed. If we go back to the bracket reveal on Feb 13th this is how it the committee had the top 16 teams. USC & Fla St were the only teams mentioned as possible 4 seeds. In order:
    (1) Gonzaga Baylor Michigan Ohio St.
    (2) Illinois Villanova Alabama Houston
    (3) Virginia West Virginia Tennessee Oklahoma
    (4) Iowa Texas Tech Texas Missouri...............then USC.....Fla St

    So after the bracket reveal we were basically the first 5 seed. Since Feb 13th Oklahoma, Missouri have piled up loses and we are definitely ahead of them on the seed line. Virginia, Villanova(now without Gillepsie), & Texas Tech have probably hurt their resume more than we have. I would say we are right with those teams close to the same seed line. With Villanova losing today that is definitely one team we should pass if we win the Pac-12 tournament. Virginia won a last second shot today so that could have helped our cause if they had lost(but can't stand Syracuse and love seeing Boeheim sweat selection Sunday).

    So using Bracket Matrix as a reference point I'll go over where we should stand going into today. The 1,s & 2's are pretty much set so we can't pass any of them. I believe a couple 3's won't move either. Of the 2's Houston could move down if they don't win the American Athletic but they won't fall below a 3 seed.

    (1) Gonzaga Baylor Michigan Illinois
    (2) Alabama Iowa Ohio St Houston
    (3) Arkansas West Virginia Kansas Villanova
    (4) Oklahoma St. Texas Purdue Virginia
    (5) Florida St. USC Creighton Tennessee
    (6) Texas Tech Colorado BYU Missouri
    (7) Oklahoma Oregon Clemson Wisconsin
    (8) San Diego St Florida Loyola(Chi) LSU
    (9) UCONN Virginia Tech North Carolina St Bonaventure
    )10) Rutgers UCLA VCU Georgia Tech

    So based on Bracket Matrix what is our path to a 3-seed. Obviously win the Pac-12 tournament. Arkansas is not moving below the 3 line(Should be a 2). The combination of Kansas/ Oklahoma St/ Texas/Purdue. Two of those teams will be on the 3 line almost for sure. And after this mornings results the 3 line should look like this: Arkansas-Kansas-Oklahoma St.-Texas.

    (1) First we probably need Texas or Kansas to lose today. If not today for sure tomorrow. Still might be enough to pass either.
    (2) Purdue losing to Ohio St tomorrow.
    (3) Neither Florida St or Virginia winning the ACC. This is real close if one did win the ACC and USC won the Pac-12. They would probably favor the ACC because of west coast bias.
    (4) And maybe Creighton not winning the Big East. Still think we would be in better position for higher seed.

    So if you're watching games the next couple of days root against: Kansas, Oklahoma St, Texas, Purdue, Virginia, Florida St.

    And if we happen to lose today for example I can't see no way we fall below a 6 seed. Colorado would probably pass us if they got to the Pac-12 final. Oregon might if they won the Pac-12. There is no way we go below BYU who is done playing and having beat them by 20+. Nor Clemson who lost to Miami yesterday. The only teams that could pass us as bracket matrix stands right now: Creighton, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Missouri, Oklahoma, Wisconsin. Probably root against those teams if we happen to lose today.




    Good post. Thanks.

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    • swamdog
      swamdog commented
      Editing a comment
      Welcome. I love crunching the numbers this time of year. Especially when we are dancing!!

  • #3
    A 3 seed would be huge IMO

    Comment


    • #4
      Yeah I don't see us making it quite up there - our Quad 1A games are lacking compared to everyone up in 3 land EXCEPT Houston. Truthfully, I just want to see us start playing good basketball and take care of teams that we should.

      That starts tonight and goes through Saturday, after that let the pieces fall where they may. A conversation that interests me more is where we would LIKE to be, given the nature of the true Snake seeding in place this year. Worst 4 seed puts us on a collision course with the zags, worst 3 puts us... With the worst 1 seed... Mich/Illinois likely, and we wouldn't play them until the FF, so our chief concern would be the best 2 seed, prob Ohio st, prob the best we could get if we make it that far.

      Not sure what I make of that.

      Of course I just don't wanna sit at a 5 seed cause they get upset so often, what likely 12 seeds would we play?

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