The only way we get to a 3 is to win the conference tournament and to get a lot of help. So step one is simple: beat Colorado and then Oregon.

Here are the teams we want to lose if we want to crawl up the seedings.

1. Florida State: They're playing a hot North Carolina team. Hard to understand why they are ahead of us in so many brackets. We have a better resume than them. They only have two Quad one wins.
2. Creighton: They've got UConn today. Our resumes are very similar. A loss boosts us fractionally because we lost to the Huskies and gives us a chance to definitely be seeded higher. They've got some Quad 3 losses that give us the edge.
3. Tennessee: They might have a slight lead on us resume wise with more Quad 1 contests. They get Florida tonight, who has no prayer of passing us unless they win the conference tourney.
4. Purdue: They've got Ohio State, who they've already beaten twice. If they make it a third time, they will be seeded above us for sure.
5. Texas: They have a lot of Quad 1 games and are .500 away from home in them. Just saw that Kansas tested positive so at least that robs Texas of that extra chance at beating kansas for a 3rd time, but it will be hard to be seeded higher than them now.

Teams who are done that we could pass.
1. West Virginia: Our chance at getting ahead of them is not great. They're 8-4 on the road with 6 Quad 1 wins, four away from home.
2. Villanova: 2 wins by us would give the Trojans an objectively better resume than the Wildcats with more Quad 1 wins overall, away from home, and a better road record.
3. Virginia: See Villanova above.

If we lose tonight, I think we're either a 5 or a 6, and I would root for the latter.

If we win tonight and lose tomorrow, I think we are a high 5, low 4, depending on the teams above us.

If we win both games and don't get much help above, we're a solid 4.